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Shipments of residential and light commercial central air conditioners and heat pumps rebounded to record levels in 2002. Spurred by historically low mortgage rates, the hotter-than-normal summer and droughts that affected more than half of America, the improvement in unitary equipment installations could portend slow improvement next year in the commercial and industrial markets, too.
By early October, shipments were on track to achieve 6.7 million units, with units below five tons showing marked improvement despite the less-than-robust economy. However, shipments of large unitary and centrifugal chillers have not fared as well and will need a revitalized economy next year, with a boost in employment, to spur new office and industrial plant construction.
The downturn over the past 12 months in large unitary shipments will result in an aging equ9ipment base because building owners have delayed replacements. The result could be an increase in service calls and a growing inventory of units earmarked for replacement as the U.S. economy gains strength.
Meanwhile, there are pockets of strength that should continue improving. Health care construction - from hospitals and special care facilities to drug stores and medical buildings - is achieving double digit growth. Public school districts will spend $108 billion and colleges and universities will spend $61 billion on construction projects over the next three years.
A brightening employment market would improve the momentum already evident in the small unitary market where replacements play a key role. Indeed, combined shipments of large and small central air conditioners and heat pumps are on a pace to meet or exceed the record 6.7 million units achieved in 2000. Heat pumps could edge past the record 1,442,355 units shipped last year.
New home construction remains vibrant and single-family and existing home sales are bumping into record territory, although there are signs that fast-rising home prices could slow sales. Before-and after-sale "home fix ups," coupled with a huge surge in mortgage refinancing, are driving heating, air conditioning, ventilation/filtration upgrades, a trend that should continue into 2003.
The market for building remediation to cope with indoor air quality problems are beginning to boom. Contractors are flocking to seminars and training programs designed to open up new revenue streams that will likely include a greater use of ultraviolet light, sophisticated controls, dehumidification divides and air filtration systems, for example.
Looming over the entire HVACR marketplace is the impending 2010 deadline in the United States for the phase out of HCFC-22 in new air conditioning and refrigeration equipment. Under government regulations, HCFC-22 will continue to be produced until 2020 to service existing equipment. For decades, it has been the refrigerant for residential and light commercial central system, with close to 70 million units no in service in the U.S.
HCFCs were designated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to serve as one of the alternatives for the replacement of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) refrigerants that were banned from production effective Dec. 31, 1995. CFC-12 was widely used in commercial refrigeration and air conditioning, automobile air conditioning, and residential refrigerators, but not in residential central air conditioning.
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